Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 40.541979 44.290177 48.428360 53.375024 59.180042 65.843986 74.173605
2025-02-23 34.677696 39.536902 45.298681 52.771756 62.425221 74.808160 92.503301
2025-03-02 30.981549 36.250769 42.782121 51.716367 64.047230 81.213416 108.524922
2025-03-09 28.476633 33.975517 41.026407 51.085365 65.745818 87.655181 126.177828
2025-03-16 26.079880 31.537264 38.702497 49.237049 65.221898 90.454134 138.613387
2025-03-23 25.306783 31.121934 38.989058 51.016101 70.276627 103.096672 173.930940
2025-03-30 24.008488 29.864763 37.952107 50.659580 71.820457 110.030123 201.202472
2025-04-06 22.781675 28.603774 36.780803 49.926961 72.562518 115.591433 228.500339
2025-04-13 21.416853 27.055668 35.064423 48.139777 71.174529 116.577605 244.454116
2025-04-20 21.074532 26.934683 35.437569 49.740199 76.106652 132.095542 316.580925
2025-04-27 20.674709 26.695975 35.600241 50.988874 80.584512 148.187140 412.603467
2025-05-04 20.144889 26.228016 35.363890 51.510228 83.699616 162.147916 526.073224
2025-05-11 19.417163 25.453674 34.636587 51.174725 85.180729 173.006649 656.550181
2025-05-18 18.692078 24.649630 33.815061 50.600360 86.095085 182.902822 821.690381
2025-05-25 17.948052 23.777681 32.825022 49.612906 85.914505 189.468227 997.362457
2025-06-01 17.338607 23.083547 32.083430 49.022219 86.560289 199.235178 1290.160446
2025-06-08 16.563247 22.097990 30.803728 47.290363 84.222715 197.650811 1421.647132
2025-06-15 16.449765 22.142200 31.249900 48.957363 90.526455 232.150189 3075.941650
2025-06-22 15.999976 21.631687 30.719118 48.623478 91.685101 246.927878 5333.817354
2025-06-29 15.521308 21.055443 30.044016 47.937090 91.799486 257.375273 9757.170533
2025-07-06 14.910847 20.246394 28.928299 46.261065 88.980049 252.398429 11799.295222
2025-07-13 14.836970 20.299608 29.320868 47.762052 95.294946 299.291006 NaN
2025-07-20 14.711125 20.261138 29.546555 48.931868 100.991884 351.303332 NaN